The role of asymptomatic class, quarantine and isolation in the transmission of COVID-19.
Identifieur interne : 000A84 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000A83; suivant : 000A85The role of asymptomatic class, quarantine and isolation in the transmission of COVID-19.
Auteurs : Mohsin Ali [Pakistan] ; Syed Touqeer H. Shah [Pakistan] ; Mudassar Imran [Koweït] ; Adnan Khan [Pakistan]Source :
- Journal of biological dynamics [ 1751-3766 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Betacoronavirus (physiologie), Humains (MeSH), Incertitude (MeSH), Infections asymptomatiques (épidémiologie), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Modèles biologiques (MeSH), Pandémies (MeSH), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Quarantaine (MeSH), Simulation numérique (MeSH), Taux de reproduction de base (MeSH).
- MESH :
- physiologie : Betacoronavirus.
- épidémiologie : Infections asymptomatiques, Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Humains, Incertitude, Modèles biologiques, Pandémies, Quarantaine, Simulation numérique, Taux de reproduction de base.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Asymptomatic Infections (epidemiology), Basic Reproduction Number (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (physiology), COVID-19 (MeSH), Computer Simulation (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Humans (MeSH), Models, Biological (MeSH), Pandemics (MeSH), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Quarantine (MeSH), SARS-CoV-2 (MeSH), Uncertainty (MeSH).
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Asymptomatic Infections.
- physiology : Betacoronavirus.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Basic Reproduction Number, COVID-19, Computer Simulation, Humans, Models, Biological, Pandemics, Quarantine, SARS-CoV-2, Uncertainty.
Abstract
We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that for [Formula: see text] the disease dies out and for [Formula: see text] the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that [Formula: see text] is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that [Formula: see text] which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.
DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1773000
PubMed: 32498655
Affiliations:
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Shah</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore, Pakistan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Pakistan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>DHA Lahore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Imran, Mudassar" sort="Imran, Mudassar" uniqKey="Imran M" first="Mudassar" last="Imran">Mudassar Imran</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Gulf University for Science & Technology, Mishref, Kuwait.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Koweït</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Gulf University for Science & Technology, Mishref</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Mishref</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Khan, Adnan" sort="Khan, Adnan" uniqKey="Khan A" first="Adnan" last="Khan">Adnan Khan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore, Pakistan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Pakistan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>DHA Lahore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32498655</idno><idno type="pmid">32498655</idno><idno type="doi">10.1080/17513758.2020.1773000</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">002506</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">002506</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">002506</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">002506</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">002506</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">The role of asymptomatic class, quarantine and isolation in the transmission of COVID-19.</title><author><name sortKey="Ali, Mohsin" sort="Ali, Mohsin" uniqKey="Ali M" first="Mohsin" last="Ali">Mohsin Ali</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore, Pakistan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Pakistan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>DHA Lahore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shah, Syed Touqeer H" sort="Shah, Syed Touqeer H" uniqKey="Shah S" first="Syed Touqeer H" last="Shah">Syed Touqeer H. Shah</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore, Pakistan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Pakistan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>DHA Lahore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Imran, Mudassar" sort="Imran, Mudassar" uniqKey="Imran M" first="Mudassar" last="Imran">Mudassar Imran</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Gulf University for Science & Technology, Mishref, Kuwait.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Koweït</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Gulf University for Science & Technology, Mishref</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Mishref</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Khan, Adnan" sort="Khan, Adnan" uniqKey="Khan A" first="Adnan" last="Khan">Adnan Khan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore, Pakistan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Pakistan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>DHA Lahore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of biological dynamics</title><idno type="eISSN">1751-3766</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Asymptomatic Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Basic Reproduction Number (MeSH)</term><term>Betacoronavirus (physiology)</term><term>COVID-19 (MeSH)</term><term>Computer Simulation (MeSH)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Models, Biological (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term><term>Quarantine (MeSH)</term><term>SARS-CoV-2 (MeSH)</term><term>Uncertainty (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Betacoronavirus (physiologie)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Incertitude (MeSH)</term><term>Infections asymptomatiques (épidémiologie)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Modèles biologiques (MeSH)</term><term>Pandémies (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (transmission)</term><term>Quarantaine (MeSH)</term><term>Simulation numérique (MeSH)</term><term>Taux de reproduction de base (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Asymptomatic Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Betacoronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections asymptomatiques</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term><term>COVID-19</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Quarantine</term><term>SARS-CoV-2</term><term>Uncertainty</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Humains</term><term>Incertitude</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Quarantaine</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Taux de reproduction de base</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that for [Formula: see text] the disease dies out and for [Formula: see text] the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that [Formula: see text] is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that [Formula: see text] which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32498655</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>16</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>18</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1751-3766</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>14</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of biological dynamics</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J Biol Dyn</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>The role of asymptomatic class, quarantine and isolation in the transmission of COVID-19.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>389-408</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1080/17513758.2020.1773000</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that for [Formula: see text] the disease dies out and for [Formula: see text] the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that [Formula: see text] is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that [Formula: see text] which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ali</LastName><ForeName>Mohsin</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore, Pakistan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shah</LastName><ForeName>Syed Touqeer H</ForeName><Initials>STH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore, Pakistan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Imran</LastName><ForeName>Mudassar</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Gulf University for Science & Technology, Mishref, Kuwait.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Khan</LastName><ForeName>Adnan</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore, Pakistan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>J Biol Dyn</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101299725</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1751-3758</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058345" MajorTopicYN="N">Asymptomatic Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D050936" MajorTopicYN="N">Basic Reproduction Number</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000502" MajorTopicYN="Y">physiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000086382" MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003198" MajorTopicYN="N">Computer Simulation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008954" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Biological</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011790" MajorTopicYN="Y">Quarantine</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000086402" MajorTopicYN="N">SARS-CoV-2</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D035501" MajorTopicYN="N">Uncertainty</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">control strategies</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">coronavirus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">isolation</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">lockdown</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">optimal control</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">quarantine</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>6</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>6</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32498655</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1080/17513758.2020.1773000</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Koweït</li><li>Pakistan</li></country></list><tree><country name="Pakistan"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ali, Mohsin" sort="Ali, Mohsin" uniqKey="Ali M" first="Mohsin" last="Ali">Mohsin Ali</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Khan, Adnan" sort="Khan, Adnan" uniqKey="Khan A" first="Adnan" last="Khan">Adnan Khan</name><name sortKey="Shah, Syed Touqeer H" sort="Shah, Syed Touqeer H" uniqKey="Shah S" first="Syed Touqeer H" last="Shah">Syed Touqeer H. Shah</name></country><country name="Koweït"><noRegion><name sortKey="Imran, Mudassar" sort="Imran, Mudassar" uniqKey="Imran M" first="Mudassar" last="Imran">Mudassar Imran</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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